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PMI Risk Management Professional 認定 PMI-RMP 試験問題 (Q142-Q147):
質問 # 142
During a brainstorming session, a stakeholder identifies a risk that, if realized, could greatly impact their team. The stakeholder insists that this particular risk should be mitigated to the greatest extent possible, however, the majority of other stakeholders feel that different risks have higher probabilities of occurring.
Which action should the risk manager take to address this risk?
正解:A
解説:
Adding the identified risk to the risk register is the best action that the risk manager can take to address this risk. The risk register is a document that records the identified risks, their characteristics, their status, and their responses. By adding the risk to the risk register, the risk manager can ensure that the risk is not overlooked or ignored, and that it will be subjected to further probability and impact analysis to determine its priority and response strategy. Accepting the identified risk because other stakeholders feel that there are higher priority risks to address is not a good practice, as it may lead to overlooking a potentially significant risk that could affect the stakeholder's team. Mitigating the identified risk in order to reduce the probability of impacting the stakeholder's team is not advisable, as it may be a premature or unnecessary action without proper analysis of the risk probability and impact. Escalating the identified risk to the project sponsor and allowing them to determine the best course of action is not appropriate, as it may be an overreaction or a sign of lack of competence from the risk manager, who should be able to handle the risk identification and analysis process. References: PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP)® Exam Content Outline1, PMI Practice Standard for Project Risk Management2, Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP)® Cert Guide3
質問 # 143
Towards the end of definitive design, project costs have increased to the point where it will be classified as a capital asset project. The customer has expressed they want one final total project completion date and will afford no extensions after it is established.
How should the risk manager proceed?
正解:B
解説:
The risk manager should perform a quantitative risk analysis to determine the potential impact of risks on the project's completion date. This will help in providing a more accurate project completion date to the customer, considering the risks and their potential effects on the project schedule.
According to the PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline1, one of the tasks in the domain of Risk Analysis is to perform quantitative risk analysis using techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, decision tree analysis, sensitivity analysis, etc., to quantify the possible outcomes for the project and their probabilities, and to evaluate the cost and schedule impacts of risks1. In this scenario, the risk manager should perform a quantitative risk analysis and update the results, because the project costs have increased significantly and the customer has imposed a strict deadline for the project completion. A quantitative risk analysis will help the risk manager to estimate the probability of meeting the project objectives, such as cost and schedule, and to determine the appropriate contingency reserves for the project. A quantitative risk analysis will also provide more accurate and reliable information for the customer and the project team, and will support the risk response planning process2. References: 1: PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline, page 92: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) - Sixth Edition, pages 431-432.
質問 # 144
During the construction of a housing development, a project team realizes they exceeded their materials budget during the first of three execution stages. The risk manager observed that the team did not notice that the cost of the materials increased due to continuous inflation in the steel market.
What could have been done during project planning to avoid overspending?
正解:D
解説:
To avoid overspending due to the unanticipated increase in material costs, the project team should have properly documented the triggers and actions for the risk. By identifying and documenting triggers-such as market conditions that could lead to price increases-the team could have monitored these triggers more closely and taken preemptive action, such as locking in prices or adjusting the budget accordingly.
PMI recommends that triggers for risks be identified and documented during the planning phase so that appropriate monitoring and responses can be implemented as part of the risk management plan.
質問 # 145
You are the project manager of the HQQ Project for your company. You are working with your project stakeholders to discuss the risks in the project that can adversely affect the project objectives. You are discussing the possibilities of causes for an identified risk event in your project. Your stakeholder is confused on the difference between causes and risk events. Which of the following is NOT an example of a cause for a project risk?
正解:C
質問 # 146
During project planning, a risk is identified for which the risk manager has defined a mitigation strategy.
Later during project execution, this risk still leaves substantial residual risk.
What should the risk manager do to handle this situation?
正解:C
解説:
If a risk still leaves substantial residual risk after implementing the mitigation strategy, the risk manager should revisit the risk register and redefine the mitigation strategy to reduce the residual risk to an acceptable level.
According to the PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1, an effect of adding the correlation to the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis model is that it increases the standard deviation of the model. This is because:
* Correlation is the statistical relationship between two or more variables. In a schedule risk analysis, correlation can be used to model the dependency between the durations of different activities. For example, if two activities are positively correlated, it means that if one activity takes longer than expected, the other activity is also likely to take longer than expected. Conversely, if two activities are negatively correlated, it means that if one activity takes longer than expected, the other activity is likely to take shorter than expected.
* A Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis is a simul-ation technique that uses random values for uncertain variables, such as activity durations, to generate possible outcomes for the project schedule. The simul- ation is repeated many times to produce a probability distribution of the project completion date and duration. The standard deviation is a measure of the variability or dispersion of the distribution. A higher standard deviation means that the distribution is more spread out and less predictable.
* Adding correlation to the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis model increases the standard deviation of the model because it introduces more variability and uncertainty to the simul-ation. Correlated activities can have a cumulative effect on the project schedule, either positively or negatively, depending on the direction and strength of the correlation. This can result in more extreme outcomes for the project completion date and duration, which increase the spread of the distribution and the standard deviation.
:
PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1
Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP)®Exam Cert Guide2
質問 # 147
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